Saturday, March 28, 2009

Earth Hour ? What An Exhilarating Jokes! :-)


There’s one thing in particular that bothers me about Earth Hour - these people who switch off electric lights and then go and light up candles in a form of happy hour celebrations, and think that they’re helping to reduce global warming or climate change. Worse still and exhilarating funny, some TV stations did even switch off the lights on their news studios meanwhile light up the candles beautifully within their studios while advocating & talking about saving the ailing planets from global warming to symbolize that they are supporting for Earth Hour. ha ha.. don't they realized that by burning candles, they are trying to send our Miss Earth way to hell even at a faster pace? :-)
It should be noted that construction industry is also one of the major contributions to Global Warming! So, how does a government strike a balance between economic growth and preservation of envrionmental quality? Who Cares? Some companies just concern about income (monetary) generating rather than air pollution or Global Warming.. haha.. For some, ethics, morality & corporate social responsibility (CSR) is listed far bottom or even not in their so called Mission & Vision agenda :-)

The widespread practice of misguided perception of turning off their lights for Earth Hour and burning candles as a source of light is grossly misguided and actually contributes to excessive increased carbon dioxide emissions.

Yes, I know candles are nice and romantic but you’re taking paraffin wax, in the form of a candle, and burning it, very inefficiently, at a low temperature. This stuff is pure hydrocarbon - it’s a heavy alkane fraction distilled straight off crude oil. This stuff is getting so scarce that nations are prepared to go to war just to secure it, remember?

A candle flame burns at a low temperature, so it’s a thermodynamically very inefficient source of energy, and most of the energy released in a candle is wasted as heat, anyway.
Even if 80% of your electricity comes from coal and fossil fuel fired power stations, as it does in Australia, burning candles is very polluting and certainly very greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions intensive, even more so than electric lighting.

Earth Hour should be about doing everything that you can to reasonably, sensibly limit your demand for electricity - and we can do this every hour of every day, of course. It makes sense for everyone - after all, you pay for the electricity.

I guess I have a problem with the idea that Earth Hour symbolises something.
It might symbolise something, but it doesn’t actually do anything!!!
The only thing it symbolises is primitive society.
I’d much rather see people spend their Earth Hour doing something that really does count for something.

Instead of spending your Earth Hour bearing with an uncomfortable, dark lifestyle, use that hour to think about the things that we can all do every day to limit electricity consumption, that we will actually bother to do every day, that are compatible with the fact that, yes, in our developed first-world society, we actually use electricity, and we work after the sun goes down.


Quantitatively, this use of candles during Earth Hour is responsible for increased emissions of greenhouse gases. I wouldn't be surprised if the candle burning caused more carbon emissions than running a few fluorescent bulbs! As we all noted, global warming is irreversible!!! Every carbon dioxide, monoxide generated can only accumulated & generate more heats and accelerate global warming! Poor Miss Earth, hope you won't fall sick and get sick of those carbon emitted by those irresponsible mankind :-)

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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

China's Target of 8% Or Better GDP Growth For 2009 Are Purely Fantasy




The sound of China’s claims that its economy will grow at 8% or better this year are getting faint.
According to the FT, “The World Bank lowered its forecast for China’s GDP growth this year to 6.5 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent it predicted at the end of November last year, following a huge drop in exports and shrinking private sector investment.”
Even that estimate may be too high.


China’s factory production and export figures appear to be too low to support rapid GDP growth.


That would mean spending inside the country would have to be extraordinary. This may end up being the case as the central government puts $600 billion into the economy to offset the slowdown in the world’s GDP growth. While the move may help China’s growth, it is artificial and because of that it is probably not sustainable.





Once the $600 billion has been handed out, China may be left with only two options. The first is to spend another $600 billion. The second is to hope that business and consumer activity will pick up in the US, EU, and Japan, pushing up China’s export figures.


What would GDP growth in the world’s most populous nation be without a huge aid package? Probably far less than 6%
Well, many leaders, investors, fund managers worldwide just want to build-up their confidence & comfort their own conscience, citizens, clients and businesses that they can achieve some sort of positive growth though apparently super tough. Well, same characters shown by the typical Manchester United players & many other managers ie. confidence that they will win all the way or must at least told themselves and the players that they can win before the game started though eventually they failed :-) That's what we call Never Say Die Spirit :-)

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Aviation Industry in Jeopardy!

Airlines suffer as demand falls

Lufthansa recorded a profit in 2008 despite falling demand for flights
A number of major global airlines have reported losses or big falls in profits for 2008 as the global economic downturn hits demand for air travel.
Cathay Pacific recorded a net loss of $1.1bn (£802m) for the full year, blaming falling demand for flights and high fuel prices at the start of 2008.
Aer Lingus posted a net loss of $136m, compared with a $133m profit in 2007.
Finally, Lufthansa's net profits slumped two-thirds to $758m, compared with $2.1bn for the previous year.




'Deeply disappointing'
The loss at Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific was far worse than expected and compares with a profit of $900m in 2007.
The airline suffered big losses from betting on futures contracts which were designed to hedge against surging fuel prices seen during the first half of 2008.
"The outcome is deeply disappointing," said Cathay chairman Christopher Pratt.


"Having made a painful adjustment to high fuel prices, the aviation industry now has to adjust to a severe economic downturn.


"Cathay Pacific expects an extremely challenging year in 2009," he added.
Aer Lingus blamed a "weak and rapidly deteriorating operating environment" for its losses, and said it was unlikely to meet its profits forecasts for this year.


"Falling consumer demand in key markets, a weakening dollar and sterling, and increased competition put pressure on our business throughout the year," said chief executive Dermot Mannion.


He also said that record highs in fuel prices had hurt the airline.
The boss of German airline Lufthansa, Wolfgang Mayrhubber, said the company's profit represented "an outstanding result", but warned that 2009 would present "a far more challenging environment





Many airlines across the world suffered big losses from betting on futures contracts which were designed to hedge against surging fuel prices seen during the first half of 2008. Case on point, Air Asia. Well, put in another words, doing business is just like betting. Win or Lose. It seems like during current economic downturn, most business are on losing streak!!!

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Thursday, March 5, 2009

Bleak Times For China's Manufacturers

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7921501.stm

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Citigroup Shares Crumbling & Diving Below $1 !

Shares of Citigroup, once the world's most valuable bank, tumbled below $1 on Thursday, taking its year-to-date drop to 85 percent !

Citigroup, a Dow component, fell more than 13 percent to an intraday low of $0.98, hammered by continued fears over the bank's health and ability to avert nationalization.
About two years ago, Citi's market value was above $270 billion. Today its market cap is a little over $5.4 billion !

Unbelievable? Believe It! :-) The Citi might highly probably need to take a good nite rest forever due to Global Economic Recession as The Citi Never Sleeps all this while :-)

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Ghost Factory sign of China's Economy Slump

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7921786.stm

Some believe China's wealth may be key to resuscitating the global economy
Wen Jiabao's visit to the UK is part of something his government is calling a 'Journey of Confidence' - a whirlwind tour of Europe to promote trade and investment.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Wen talked up China's role in reviving international fortunes: "We are full of confidence. The harsh winter will be gone and spring is around the corner."

Over the past two decades, China has transformed itself from a drab Communist state to the planet's third largest economy, with 1.3 billion consumers hungry for the fruits of capitalism.
But while people and governments in the West are burdened with debt, the Chinese are careful savers. Chinese households have one of the highest savings rates in the world - 30%, compared to about 1% in Britain, and close to zero in the US.

That is why some people think if the Chinese can now be coaxed into spending their hoarded wealth, they will be key to resuscitating the global economy.For his part, Mr Brown has made it clear he wants to do business with the Chinese leader while he is in town.

And both men agree the world must stave off protectionist trade policies and defend globalisation in the midst of the crisis.

China is set to spend a £400bn government stimulus package, most of which will go into building new infrastructure like roads and airports.

During Mr Wen's stop in Berlin earlier this week, two German companies inked deals with China in the transportation sector.

Mr Brown will be hoping that British companies can also get a piece of China's stimulus pie.
But there are others who see China in a different light: as the cause of the financial crisis.
China's two decade-long boom has been fuelled by exports - as the country transformed itself into the world's manufacturing hub.

China's foreign exchange reserves now total nearly US$2 trillion.It has used much of that money to buy American debt - mainly Treasury bills issued by the US government. There are some who argue China's effective line of credit to the American economy was the cause of the mortgage bubble - and therefore the credit crunch.America's new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner accused China of "manipulating its currency" - that is, unfairly depressing the value of the yuan so as to promote exports, thereby creating an ever bigger imbalance in trade.
In Germany, the Chinese Premier defended his country's exchange rate policy, telling reporters: "China is not to blame for this." It is better to believe that there is some sort of conspiracy in Beijing... All that is economic gobbledygook.

There are many experts who disagree with Mr Geithner."It is better to believe that there is some sort of conspiracy in Beijing to make Chinese manufacturers and exports wildly and unfairly competitive and put the poor American worker out of business," said Professor Willem Buiter, of the London School of Economics

But if the new US administration is unfairly using China as a scapegoat, it is still unclear how it can save the world from the financial crisis. The country has its own money worries - slowing economic growth, a slump in exports and rising unemployment. As exports fall, Mr Wen and his government are trying to replace it with domestic consumption - getting people and companies to spend. But that will not be easy in the face of China's woefully inadequate social security and public healthcare and with many of its citizens still living in grinding poverty.

To date, more than 20 million rural migrants in China were now out of work, is an indication that the slowdown in the world's third-largest economy was intensifying! I reiterate, more than 20 million!!! Large numbers of Chinese workers have lost their jobs as demand in North America and Europe for the cheap consumer goods made in China has fallen off sharply, forcing thousands of factories to shut their doors. An average of six million to seven million people leave their rural homes every year to find jobs, on top of the 20 million jobless, senior rural planning official Chen Xiwen said. The government said on Sunday that 2009 could be the "toughest year" since the turn of the century for development of the countryside, which has fallen behind as Chinese economic reforms have favoured the cities. In an interview with the Financial Times, Premier Wen said "new, timely and decisive measures" could be needed to spur the overall economy in China, less than three months after unveiling a US$580 billion stimulus plan. "We must take forceful steps. Under special circumstances, necessary and extraordinary measures are required," he told the paper. Wen, who took aim at the US economic policy in Davos last week, also said it was "ridiculous" to suggest, as some economists have done, that China's vast pool of domestic savings was to blame for the current global crisis. "Running our own affairs well is our biggest contribution to mankind," said Wen, underlining the goal to maintain growth at around 8 per cent, the minimum level Chinese authorities believe is needed to avoid social unrest. Taiwan, a major electronics exporter also hit hard by the slowdown, meanwhile announced a US$21 billion stimulus drive over the next four years, hoping to create 150,000 jobs and bring unemployment under 4.5 per cent. The jobless rate on the island was 5.03 per cent in December, the highest level in more than five years.

Further, about 220,000 stores may close this year in America, says a retail consultant Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates. As more Americans save and spend less, it's clear there's too much retail space. Just visit Web site deadmalls.com and track retail's growing body count. And luxury retailers? They're on "life support," Davidowitz says. Hence, be prepared for mass retails closings not only in America BUT worldwide!


Some ignorant, foolishly naive government, businessman, investors, Finance Minister, Country's Leader across the globe earlier thought that they could look forward to China and India or maybe Europe for their economic growth after U.S. economic slumps. Some act like a novice though they had been in business for some donkey years. Well, it is now evidently crystallized clear that China, India & even Europe has got problems with their own domestic growth and many has fell into unprecedented negative economic growth! There are reliable evidence which suggests that Europe has got even bigger financial crisis catasrophe than U.S.

Well, let's look from another angle (perspective) whereby there is negative or slower economic growth. Definitely, it will be good for our environmental preservation and enhance the quality of our environment as there will be less carbon dioxide emitted by factories, cars, airplane, construction equipments when there is not much activity going on. Hence, global warming will be curb and reduced to some extent! That's why it's hard to strike a balance between economic growth and environmental preservation! If you choose one, you have to forsake the other. These two can never go together!

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Monday, March 2, 2009

The World's Economy is Worsening & Plunging Deeper into Unprecedented Recessions!
















This unique Global recessions will be the worst and it happens probably once in 100 years! Surely it will be the longest & deepest! Many governments are just cover-up the FACTS! Hence, be prepared for the worst! Today, the 2nd of March 2009, stocks plunging into sea of reds (bloodbath) from Tokyo to New York!!!


U.S. futures slumped and Treasuries rose as Warren Buffett said the economy is in a “shambles” and American International Group Inc. announced a $61.7 billion loss.
HSBC Holdings Plc tumbled 20 percent in London, the biggest drop since at least 1992, after saying it plans to raise 12.5 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in a rights offer, increasing concern that financial firms need more capital. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, retreated 6.8 percent as the nation’s wage declines accelerated. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, lost 5 percent as oil fell more than 5 percent and copper, nickel and aluminum dropped.

“Things are getting worse,” said Alex Crooke, portfolio manager at Henderson Global Investors in London, which has about $125 billion. “The economy is still deteriorating and bad debts are still going to appear,” he said

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries sank 2 percent to 736.08 at 12:20 p.m. in London, extending its 2009 decline to 20 percent, the worst start to a year since the gauge was created in 1970. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 3.6 percent, while Hungary’s forint fell after European Union leaders spurned aid pleas for eastern Europe.
Worst ‘Freefall’
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring this month dropped 2.5 percent, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures suggested the 30-stock gauge will fall below 7,000 for the first time since 1997. Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said in his annual letter to shareholders that the U.S. economy will be a “shambles” this year and perhaps longer, before recovering from the reckless lending that caused the worst “freefall” he ever saw in the financial system!


U.S. futures extended their drop after AIG posted its record loss. The S&P 500 slid to a 12-year low last week as the U.S. Treasury agreed to convert as much as $25 billion of Citigroup Inc. preferred shares into common stock in a third rescue attempt for the lender. Well, i wonder when is the fourth rescue are on the way or perhaps fifth or sixth? :-)

American International Group Inc., the insurer deemed too important to fail, will get as much as $30 billion in new government capital in a revised bailout after posting the worst loss by a U.S. corporation.
The fourth-quarter loss widened to $61.7 billion from $5.29 billion in the year-earlier period, the New York-based insurer said today in a statement. The government relaxed terms of its bailout package to reduce pressure on AIG and stabilize the financial system.

The insurer, first saved from collapse in September with a package that grew to $150 billion last year, had to ask for help again after failing to sell enough subsidiaries to repay the government. Banks relied on AIG to back more than $300 billion of assets through derivative contracts as of Sept. 30, making the company a “systemically significant failing institution” that has to be propped up, according to the Treasury.


“The government has accepted all the downside with little chance of upside,” said Phillip Phan, professor of management at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Baltimore, before the announcement. “They are trying to protect the global financial system from a complete meltdown.”

AIG will pay down the federal loan, valued at about $38.9 billion on Dec. 31, partly by turning over its two largest international life insurance units, which will be put in trusts. The company will also give the government rights to the cash flow from tens of thousands of life insurance policies.

AIG is winding down the trades and closing the unit that sold the swaps. The unit is under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission and U.K.’s Serious Fraud Office. The U.S. probes involve how AIG executives valued its swap portfolio and disclosed information about the contracts to investors, AIG said in a November regulatory filing.

AIG, once the world’s largest insurer, operates in more than 100 countries, providing protection to individuals and businesses. It insures against some of the biggest risks, covering planes and commercial shipping and providing protection against terrorist attacks.

The biggest insurers in North America posted more than $150 billion in writedowns and unrealized losses linked to the collapse of the mortgage market from the start of 2007, with AIG representing more than a third of that total. The company has units that insure, originate and invest in home loans.
The U.S. Senate’s banking committee has scheduled a hearing for March 5 to discuss AIG’s bailout and the government involvement. New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo and Donald Kohn, vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, were scheduled to testify


Help on the Way
The company may warrant “possibly further government support, if markets do not stabilize and improve,” the Treasury and Federal Reserve said in a separate statement.
The insurer gained 11 cents to 53 cents at 7:07 a.m. in early New York trading. AIG has plunged 99 percent in the past 12 months. I repeat, 99 percent!!!
In an era when we’ve all become interventionists -- when doing something, anything, is preferable to doing nothing and risking being blamed for any outcome, it’s good to hear a few voices pointing to the danger of government overreach.
Historical evidence suggests that “bad government policies are responsible for causing great depressions,” write Timothy J. Kehoe, professor of economics at the University of Minnesota, and Gonzalo Fernandez de Cordoba, professor of economics at Universidad de Salamanca in Salamanca, Spain, in “The Current Financial Crisis: What Should We Learn from the Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century?”
Future Shock
It turns out the source of the shock, be it internal or external, that triggers a depression “is less important than the reaction to the shock by the economy and, in particular, the government,” the economists write.
Before you dismiss Kehoe’s views as those of a card- carrying libertarian, consider that he was trained as a Keynesian, is a “lifelong Democrat, voted for Obama,” and believes in universal health care.
He’s opposed to rewarding people who made bad investments. “The TARP money disappeared; it was scandalous,” Kehoe says, referring to the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program. “It went to people who made bad investments to try to pull them out.”
The economists’ findings in their February 2009 paper are based on a study Kehoe and Edward Prescott, recipient of the 2004 Nobel Prize in economics, have been running at the Minneapolis Fed, analyzing depressions in North America and Western Europe in the 1930s, Latin American in the 1980s and isolated examples elsewhere.
Good vs. Bad
They differentiate good outcomes to financial crises (Chile, Finland) from bad outcomes (Mexico, Japan) and find productivity plays an important role.
“All these depressions are associated with bad policies that depress the efficiency of production,” Prescott says in a phone interview. “The focus should be on productivity. History provides no support for stimulus.”
The current crisis and recession may be different than previous ones in terms of their size and scope, but that does nothing to contradict Kehoe’s belief that the financial system needs to be “cleaned out.”
In the early 1980s, Chile took control of ailing banks, liquidated the insolvent ones and re-privatized the solvent ones. “The short-term costs of the crisis and the reform in Chile were severe,” Kehoe writes.
By 1984, the economy had started to grow. And Chile has been the fastest-growing country in Latin America since then.
Pain Therapy
It’s worth the cost to sort things out as quickly as possible, he says. “If you postpone short-term pain, you end up with long-term pain,” which is what happened in Mexico and Japan.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in congressional testimony last week that key to stabilizing the economy is stabilizing the financial system.
If that’s the case -- and policy makers of all stripes seem to agree that it is -- why a $787 billion fiscal stimulus bill filled with political priorities and a budget that increases domestic spending by 8 percent?
Well, you can’t force-feed someone who’s in the middle of hanging on and depending on life support in Emergency Room!
Better to make the treatment fit the disease. Revamping the health-care system won’t fix the banks. Raising the price of carbon-based fuels and force feeding the nation alternative sources of energy won’t loosen up lending. And higher taxes on the wealthy, and inevitably the not-so-wealthy, won’t enhance bank solvency.
Doing so many things at once means a reduced focus on the root of the problem.
So what does Kehoe recommend for the current crisis?
“We need to avoid implementing policies that stifle productivity by providing bad incentives to the private sector,” he says. “Unproductive firms need to die.” Maybe then the rest of us can start to live

I wonder whether a reasonable wise man will still invest their money on Citibank or would continue to pour more money into the insurance premium of AIG and it's subsidiary AIA :-) Well, some may says, "don't worry, see..AIG gets more aid after record $61.7 billion loss". Well, i do hope that the generous government will forever be there to bailouts and give aid (which is taxpayers money) to those ailing companies. Just pray that the government itself won't fell into financial ills as a result of bad financial management & budgeting!!! or else, who's gonna treat or nursing those ailing companies? haha.. Well, in the coming days or months, i bet you'll see more insurance, bankings, automakers, aviation, manufacturings & reputable retailers asking for bailouts & aid or fall into bankruptcy or wiped out from history! Unbelievable? Believe It coz Ripley's Believe It or Not had prove those things which are unbelievable to be believed! With the facts, figures & evidence clearly laid out in front of our eyes, i'm sure you, me and ordinary reasonable sound man can foresee (envisage) what will happen next! Wondering who are those so called smartest guys who create this "superb" economy system which has now broken into pieces of mess? :-) Well, don't forget to thanks those people who had brilliantly break and manipulate the economy system for their own benefits :-) Hope they themselves won't get boomeranged ;-) haha

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